?

Log in

Republican Chances in 2006 (Cross Posted In Different GOP Communities) - Bush in 2004 [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
Vote Bush 2004

[ website | George W Bush Website ]
[ userinfo | livejournal userinfo ]
[ archive | journal archive ]

Links
[Links:| Republican National Committee Bush Country President's Website @ Whitehouse Democrats For Bush Fox News ]

Republican Chances in 2006 (Cross Posted In Different GOP Communities) [Nov. 14th, 2005|12:47 am]
Vote Bush 2004

votebush2004

[nighthawkal]
Some people think that b/c the 2005 elections didn't turn out so well that the Republicans are in trouble in 2006 and that they will lose the US House and the Senate.

I don't think that the Republicans, if they lose in 2006, are going to lose that badly. At least not badly enough to lose the Senate. In the HOuse, at most there will probably only be 20 competitive races. The Dems need a net gain of 14 seats. They probably need to win about 15 in order to take the House.

In the US Senate, the Republicans will start off w/ 40 seats, while the Dems start off with only 27 seats. There will be 33 contested seats. If the Republicans win only 11 of those 33 seats, they will maintain a 51-49 majority in the US Senate.

Current Senate:
GOP- 55
DEM- 45

Senate Starts Out:
GOP- 40
DEM- 27


Safe Republican Seats Include: (9)
Jon Kyl, Arizona
Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Trent Lott, Mississippi
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island
Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
Orrin Hatch, Utah
George Allen, Virginia
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Safe Democrats:(9)
Dianne Feinstein, California
Joe Lieberman, Connecticut
Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts
New Jersey (Jon Corzine's seat)
Jeff Bingamin, New Mexico
Kent Conrad, North Dakota
Herbert Kohl, Wisconsin

The Vermont seat held by Jumping Jim Jeffords will probably go to Bernie Sanders

Senate After Safe Seats:
GOP- 49
DEM- 36


Republicans in Potentially Close Races: (2)

Conrad Burns, Montana (Freshman Sen.)
John Ensign , Nevada (Freshman Sen in swing state)

Democrats in Potentially CLose Elections: (6)
Thomas Carper, Delaware (freshman Sen)
Hillary CLinton, New York
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan (swing state, won less than 50% in2000)
Ben Nelson, Nebraska (Democrat in heavily Republcian state. Won only 51% in 2000)
Maria Cantwell, Washington (the Libertarian had more votes than the margin of victory in 2000)
Robert KKK Byrd, West Virginia ( fought for the Confederacy in the Civil War)

GOP- 51
DEM- 42

Republicans in Extremely Close Races (4)

Jim Talent, Missouri (swing state)
Mike DeWine, Ohio (will be heavily constested seat in swing state)
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania (heavily contested seat in swing state)
Bill Frist, Tennessee ( I think he's retiring to run for Pres.)

Democrats in Extremely Close Races (3)

Bill Nelson, Florida (swing state, will be heavily contested)
Maryland (open seat. Sarbanes is retiring and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is running hard for that seat)
Minnesnowta (open seat. Sen. Dayton is retiring. POssible GOP Pickup)

I think that the worst case scenario is that Republicans still hold the US Senate 51-49. The best case scenarion is 60-40 GOP assuming they win the 7 extremely close seats and they take Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska and they take away RObert Byrd's seat in West Virginia which is a good possibility.
linkReply

Comments:
[User Picture]From: mortalpain
2005-11-15 06:02 am (UTC)
The democrats, quite frankly, have only been digging themselves deeper graves and making bigger asses out of themselves than usual, so I see no way the Republicans will suffer any major losses.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-11-21 02:27 am (UTC)
Yeah. RIght now, the Republicans and the Democrats going against each other is like a Texans-Saints game. THey're both pretty bad, but someone has to actually win.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tonichelle
2005-11-15 09:30 pm (UTC)
Ted Stevens (R-AK) is a sure win IF he doesn't get ticked off with his fellows down there and decides not to run. I don't SEE that actually happening, but who knows with dear ol' Unca Ted!
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-11-21 02:24 am (UTC)
Alaska is a pretty safe Republican state. No matter who runs, usually as long as they have an "R" next to their name, they will win.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-11-29 02:23 am (UTC)
Most pundits agree that the Democrats will not take the House or Senate in 2006. They said it would take a lot more than these piddly squat scandals going on now to cause a takeover by Democrats. The Democrats have no good alternative to offer.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-11-29 02:38 am (UTC)
Yeah, it will definitely take somehting disasterous (politically) to happen in order for the Dems to take back the House or the Senate. It's unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-11-29 02:39 am (UTC)
Most possible GOP pick-ups are Maryland, Minnesota, and Florida. A NRSC Poll showed that Conrad Burns (R-MT) would cruise to re-election. Also the lack of a big name Democrat in the race in Missouri besides last year's losing Democratic nominee for Governor Claire McCaskills (D-MO) and Talent's early fundraising start has him headed for the goal. Missouri won't be as close as predicted. If the GOP loses any Senate seats it maybe Pennsylvania. I don't know it looked like Specter (R-PA) might lose in early precinct totals last year but in final numbers he finally pulled ahead 53% to 47%. Santorum has raised a lot of money so this could be a major advantage in ecking out a win. Byrd could be history if Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R-Charleston) decides to run against him. Byrd is an old fossil who has been in the Senate since Eisenhower was President. His anti-Bush rhetoric and some of his outspoken Liberal viewpoints might not sell so well this time around. In Minnesota , Congressman Mark Kennedy (R) is our best shot at a pick-up. He leads in fundraising. Mark Dayton is retiring due to low-approval ratings. In Maryland Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele could put the State in the Red. Since he is an African American this may peel off some votes from the Democrats in Maryland. It may have had to do with Ehrlich ecking out his Gubernatorial win over Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the 2002 election. A few house seats that may possibly see turn over are those of Representatives Tom DeLay and Randy 'Duke' Cunningham. The indictments don't look so pretty. In Tennessee I think this seat will remain in GOP Hands. The Mayor of Chattanooga , Bob Corker, and former Congressman and 2002 Gubernatorial Nominee Van Hilleary lead the pack on the GOP side. I think pairing corker or Van Hilleary against the assumed Democrat nominee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. they will win easily over him. Not to sound too racist but he is a black man in a Southern state, not an easy sell.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-11-29 05:05 am (UTC)
I agree w/ you that Minn., Md., and Fla. are possible pick ups. Of course, 2 of those 3 are swing states and things will probably , partially, depend on how things are going nationally. I like Steele's chances in Md. I hope he wins, especially with what they're doing to him- hurling oreos at him. I think he may win some sympathy votes for that.

With Talent in Mo., I was just guessing that if there's someone who is a possibly vulnerable incumbent in a swing state, it would be him. With Tenn., I think if things are going badly for the GOP in 2006, that that's a state that the Dems would like to pick off since it will be an open seat. I think that Tenn. may be one of the few states left in the South where Dems still have a chance. I woudln't count out Harold Ford Jr yet b/c Va. elected a black Governor in 1989, I believe. ANd I think Ford is perceived as more of a moderate. Of course, perception isn't always reality.

I think that Santorum's seat is the most vulnerable GOP seat. Santorum's seat may make a difference in the majority that the GOP holds or, if things are really bad, if they still have a majority.

It would be nice to see Byrd voted out of the Senate, but I don't see WV voting against him. It's still 2/3 Dem and they have a Dem. Governor. I think its an uphill battle for any Republican, especially against him. It would be easier for Moore to win if it was an open seat, I think. But its definitely a seat worth contending for.

I'd like the GOP to go after Hillary in NY. Put Giuliani against her. He's the only Republican that can beat her in NY. I don't know how Maria Cantwell is doing in WA, but I think that that state is winnable too. She barely won in 2000.

As for the House seats of Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. Cunningham resigned today? Right? If its a heavily Republican district, I can see them holding it. When Gary Condidit was thrown out after the Chandra Levy situation, that seat stayed Democratic. DeLay's seat. I can't imagine anything in most cities in Texas going Democratic. Do you think any of those charges against him will hold any weight? That prosecutor has a reputation of bringing up charges against his political enemies.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-03 01:49 am (UTC)
Well they are awaiting a ruling to see if the charges are thrown out. If the charges are baseless they will be thrown out. Prosecutor Ronnie Earle brought charges against Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison for switching money around in campaigns but the charges were thrown out by a judge. I don't understand why Giuliani won't run against Hillary in New York? I know he'd probably beat her. Some businessman in Washington is running against Cantwell. Even though Cantwell isn't that popular her challenger is a virtual unknown so I wouldn't bet on the Washington seat switching. The man that ousted House Speaker Tip O'Neil, George Nethercutt couldn't oust Patty Murray so I wouldn't count on this Senate seat changing party control. Now Florida is a tough one. I personally think Katherine Harris can beat Nelson, many in the GOP have written her off as 'cant win' because of the 2000 election fiasco but that didn't stop George W. Bush from winning Florida by a larger margin in 2004 so why should it stop Harris from beating Nelson? Harris expects to raise $20 million.She doesnt have any Primary challenges so the nomination is hers. I've already donated money to Katherine Harris's campaign for Senate and Tom Gallagher's campaign for Governor. I've also made a donation to Senator George Allen's (R-VA) re-election bid. I do believe his seat is a safe GOP seat though.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-03 05:18 am (UTC)
I hope that Tom DeLay is innocent and found so. Right now, it seems like this is just a political witch hunt. Or at least thats my opinion.

From what I've heard, Giuliani wants to run for President. I wish that he'd run for Senate instead b/c he'd help the GOP better in that capacity rather than running for President. He'd turn a seat that would normally go Democrat, go Republican and he'd be a dragon slayer of sorts. He'd take out the Democrats best chance of winning the White House in 2008. I don't think that he realizes that he's never going to win in a Republican Presidential Primary. He's for abortion, for gay marriage (I think) and for gun-control. THat's 3 strikes against him for most GOP voters and that won't sell outside of the North East and California.

Florida, I think will be an uphill battle. Bill Nelson has probably been a mediocre SEantor but the GOP is running someone who incites a lot of passion on the liberal side. They can possibly win with her if everything goes rights, but I don't like the chances. I think a relatively unknown Republican with some experience may have a better chance against Bill Nelson.

So you're actually donating to campaigns? Now of all the campaigns, why TOm Gallagher and Katherine Harris?I don't know who I'm supporting in these primaries yet.

George Allen. Isn't he going to be a candidate for President in 2008? I haven't really thought a lot about politics lately and I don't know who I'd support in 2008 buuuut John McCain and Condoleezza RIce are probably early favorites along with maybe Sen. Allen
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-07 08:30 am (UTC)
Sure, why not?
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-03 01:52 am (UTC)
Jon Ensign's seat isn't a shaky one, he will cruise to re-election.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-03 04:47 am (UTC)
Yeha. I think they've only been able to get Jack Carter to run against him. I only put Nevada on there b/c it is a battleground state. When I did that I wans't aware of that many of the challengers.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-03 01:53 am (UTC)
LOL@ Robert Byrd - fought for Confederacy in the civil war.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-03 04:34 am (UTC)
HAH. I hate him like poison. He's old enough to fight in the Civil War? RIght? lol
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-07 08:29 am (UTC)
Pretty much, if he was in the Senate when Eisenhower was President, that's pretty old, the man's a fossil.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-11 03:57 am (UTC)
Part of me thinks that they should have term limits for national offices. When people are in power too long, they get arrogant with that power.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-12 04:34 pm (UTC)
Yes but term limits on federal elected offices has been declared unconstitutional. No one has challenged that since. Overall I'm opposed to term limits. In Florida this creates the problem of always having a legislature full of rookies, these people have to do on the job training and often times don't have any shit clue what they're doing. Term Limits erase the experience factor and like I said this gives us a legislature that doesn't know what the hell it's doing. There is an amendment to extend house term limits to 12 years instead of 8, I favor this, it's a step in the right direction. I oppose term limits on Legislative offices.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-25 10:07 pm (UTC)
I'm all for term limits. If people are worried about experience, they should train the incoming freshmen so then they have people coming off the bench when the incumbents retire after 12 years in office.

Letting people in too long leads to a lot of corruption. Its everywhere, even in something small like a HOme Owners Association. Or look at Castro ion Cuba. He's been there for 45 years and he was never term-limited. In the early days of the USA, I've read that many of the Congressmen were one-termers b/c no one really wanted the job of Congressman back then b/c of all the travelling and everything. I guess that was kind of a de facto term limit and we did just fine and we're still here.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-14 08:38 pm (UTC)

Romney Out

Romney is out. An article on Yahoo! said he would not seek re-election as Governor for Massachusetts.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-25 10:01 pm (UTC)

Re: Romney Out

When I first read that title, I thought, "Romney came out of the closet?!?" lol jk =P So does that mean he's running for President in 2008? I don't think its a smart move on his part. McCain is probably the front-runner, George Allen is probably the next best competitor after McCain and he may not get far in the primaries if people are successful in painting him as a liberal North Eastern Republican. He should do like Dubya did in 2000 and remain GOvernor of his state while he runs for President. If this falls through, then he becomes just a one-term Governor.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-31 02:06 pm (UTC)

Re: Romney Out

I guess it means he doesn't think he stands a chance in his re-election bid.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
From: patehg
2013-02-17 08:10 am (UTC)
Locals looking for you Go Here dld.bz/chwZQ
(Reply) (Thread)