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Vote Bush 2004

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Republican Chances in 2006 (Cross Posted In Different GOP Communities) [Nov. 14th, 2005|12:47 am]
Vote Bush 2004


Some people think that b/c the 2005 elections didn't turn out so well that the Republicans are in trouble in 2006 and that they will lose the US House and the Senate.

I don't think that the Republicans, if they lose in 2006, are going to lose that badly. At least not badly enough to lose the Senate. In the HOuse, at most there will probably only be 20 competitive races. The Dems need a net gain of 14 seats. They probably need to win about 15 in order to take the House.

In the US Senate, the Republicans will start off w/ 40 seats, while the Dems start off with only 27 seats. There will be 33 contested seats. If the Republicans win only 11 of those 33 seats, they will maintain a 51-49 majority in the US Senate.

Current Senate:
GOP- 55
DEM- 45

Senate Starts Out:
GOP- 40
DEM- 27

Safe Republican Seats Include: (9)
Jon Kyl, Arizona
Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Trent Lott, Mississippi
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island
Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
Orrin Hatch, Utah
George Allen, Virginia
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Safe Democrats:(9)
Dianne Feinstein, California
Joe Lieberman, Connecticut
Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts
New Jersey (Jon Corzine's seat)
Jeff Bingamin, New Mexico
Kent Conrad, North Dakota
Herbert Kohl, Wisconsin

The Vermont seat held by Jumping Jim Jeffords will probably go to Bernie Sanders

Senate After Safe Seats:
GOP- 49
DEM- 36

Republicans in Potentially Close Races: (2)

Conrad Burns, Montana (Freshman Sen.)
John Ensign , Nevada (Freshman Sen in swing state)

Democrats in Potentially CLose Elections: (6)
Thomas Carper, Delaware (freshman Sen)
Hillary CLinton, New York
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan (swing state, won less than 50% in2000)
Ben Nelson, Nebraska (Democrat in heavily Republcian state. Won only 51% in 2000)
Maria Cantwell, Washington (the Libertarian had more votes than the margin of victory in 2000)
Robert KKK Byrd, West Virginia ( fought for the Confederacy in the Civil War)

GOP- 51
DEM- 42

Republicans in Extremely Close Races (4)

Jim Talent, Missouri (swing state)
Mike DeWine, Ohio (will be heavily constested seat in swing state)
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania (heavily contested seat in swing state)
Bill Frist, Tennessee ( I think he's retiring to run for Pres.)

Democrats in Extremely Close Races (3)

Bill Nelson, Florida (swing state, will be heavily contested)
Maryland (open seat. Sarbanes is retiring and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is running hard for that seat)
Minnesnowta (open seat. Sen. Dayton is retiring. POssible GOP Pickup)

I think that the worst case scenario is that Republicans still hold the US Senate 51-49. The best case scenarion is 60-40 GOP assuming they win the 7 extremely close seats and they take Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska and they take away RObert Byrd's seat in West Virginia which is a good possibility.

[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-11-29 02:23 am (UTC)
Most pundits agree that the Democrats will not take the House or Senate in 2006. They said it would take a lot more than these piddly squat scandals going on now to cause a takeover by Democrats. The Democrats have no good alternative to offer.
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-11-29 02:38 am (UTC)
Yeah, it will definitely take somehting disasterous (politically) to happen in order for the Dems to take back the House or the Senate. It's unlikely but not outside the realm of possibility.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)