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Republican Chances in 2006 (Cross Posted In Different GOP Communities) [Nov. 14th, 2005|12:47 am]
Vote Bush 2004


Some people think that b/c the 2005 elections didn't turn out so well that the Republicans are in trouble in 2006 and that they will lose the US House and the Senate.

I don't think that the Republicans, if they lose in 2006, are going to lose that badly. At least not badly enough to lose the Senate. In the HOuse, at most there will probably only be 20 competitive races. The Dems need a net gain of 14 seats. They probably need to win about 15 in order to take the House.

In the US Senate, the Republicans will start off w/ 40 seats, while the Dems start off with only 27 seats. There will be 33 contested seats. If the Republicans win only 11 of those 33 seats, they will maintain a 51-49 majority in the US Senate.

Current Senate:
GOP- 55
DEM- 45

Senate Starts Out:
GOP- 40
DEM- 27

Safe Republican Seats Include: (9)
Jon Kyl, Arizona
Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Trent Lott, Mississippi
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island
Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
Orrin Hatch, Utah
George Allen, Virginia
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Safe Democrats:(9)
Dianne Feinstein, California
Joe Lieberman, Connecticut
Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts
New Jersey (Jon Corzine's seat)
Jeff Bingamin, New Mexico
Kent Conrad, North Dakota
Herbert Kohl, Wisconsin

The Vermont seat held by Jumping Jim Jeffords will probably go to Bernie Sanders

Senate After Safe Seats:
GOP- 49
DEM- 36

Republicans in Potentially Close Races: (2)

Conrad Burns, Montana (Freshman Sen.)
John Ensign , Nevada (Freshman Sen in swing state)

Democrats in Potentially CLose Elections: (6)
Thomas Carper, Delaware (freshman Sen)
Hillary CLinton, New York
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan (swing state, won less than 50% in2000)
Ben Nelson, Nebraska (Democrat in heavily Republcian state. Won only 51% in 2000)
Maria Cantwell, Washington (the Libertarian had more votes than the margin of victory in 2000)
Robert KKK Byrd, West Virginia ( fought for the Confederacy in the Civil War)

GOP- 51
DEM- 42

Republicans in Extremely Close Races (4)

Jim Talent, Missouri (swing state)
Mike DeWine, Ohio (will be heavily constested seat in swing state)
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania (heavily contested seat in swing state)
Bill Frist, Tennessee ( I think he's retiring to run for Pres.)

Democrats in Extremely Close Races (3)

Bill Nelson, Florida (swing state, will be heavily contested)
Maryland (open seat. Sarbanes is retiring and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is running hard for that seat)
Minnesnowta (open seat. Sen. Dayton is retiring. POssible GOP Pickup)

I think that the worst case scenario is that Republicans still hold the US Senate 51-49. The best case scenarion is 60-40 GOP assuming they win the 7 extremely close seats and they take Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska and they take away RObert Byrd's seat in West Virginia which is a good possibility.

[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-11-29 05:05 am (UTC)
I agree w/ you that Minn., Md., and Fla. are possible pick ups. Of course, 2 of those 3 are swing states and things will probably , partially, depend on how things are going nationally. I like Steele's chances in Md. I hope he wins, especially with what they're doing to him- hurling oreos at him. I think he may win some sympathy votes for that.

With Talent in Mo., I was just guessing that if there's someone who is a possibly vulnerable incumbent in a swing state, it would be him. With Tenn., I think if things are going badly for the GOP in 2006, that that's a state that the Dems would like to pick off since it will be an open seat. I think that Tenn. may be one of the few states left in the South where Dems still have a chance. I woudln't count out Harold Ford Jr yet b/c Va. elected a black Governor in 1989, I believe. ANd I think Ford is perceived as more of a moderate. Of course, perception isn't always reality.

I think that Santorum's seat is the most vulnerable GOP seat. Santorum's seat may make a difference in the majority that the GOP holds or, if things are really bad, if they still have a majority.

It would be nice to see Byrd voted out of the Senate, but I don't see WV voting against him. It's still 2/3 Dem and they have a Dem. Governor. I think its an uphill battle for any Republican, especially against him. It would be easier for Moore to win if it was an open seat, I think. But its definitely a seat worth contending for.

I'd like the GOP to go after Hillary in NY. Put Giuliani against her. He's the only Republican that can beat her in NY. I don't know how Maria Cantwell is doing in WA, but I think that that state is winnable too. She barely won in 2000.

As for the House seats of Tom DeLay and Duke Cunningham. Cunningham resigned today? Right? If its a heavily Republican district, I can see them holding it. When Gary Condidit was thrown out after the Chandra Levy situation, that seat stayed Democratic. DeLay's seat. I can't imagine anything in most cities in Texas going Democratic. Do you think any of those charges against him will hold any weight? That prosecutor has a reputation of bringing up charges against his political enemies.
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[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-03 01:49 am (UTC)
Well they are awaiting a ruling to see if the charges are thrown out. If the charges are baseless they will be thrown out. Prosecutor Ronnie Earle brought charges against Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison for switching money around in campaigns but the charges were thrown out by a judge. I don't understand why Giuliani won't run against Hillary in New York? I know he'd probably beat her. Some businessman in Washington is running against Cantwell. Even though Cantwell isn't that popular her challenger is a virtual unknown so I wouldn't bet on the Washington seat switching. The man that ousted House Speaker Tip O'Neil, George Nethercutt couldn't oust Patty Murray so I wouldn't count on this Senate seat changing party control. Now Florida is a tough one. I personally think Katherine Harris can beat Nelson, many in the GOP have written her off as 'cant win' because of the 2000 election fiasco but that didn't stop George W. Bush from winning Florida by a larger margin in 2004 so why should it stop Harris from beating Nelson? Harris expects to raise $20 million.She doesnt have any Primary challenges so the nomination is hers. I've already donated money to Katherine Harris's campaign for Senate and Tom Gallagher's campaign for Governor. I've also made a donation to Senator George Allen's (R-VA) re-election bid. I do believe his seat is a safe GOP seat though.
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[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-03 05:18 am (UTC)
I hope that Tom DeLay is innocent and found so. Right now, it seems like this is just a political witch hunt. Or at least thats my opinion.

From what I've heard, Giuliani wants to run for President. I wish that he'd run for Senate instead b/c he'd help the GOP better in that capacity rather than running for President. He'd turn a seat that would normally go Democrat, go Republican and he'd be a dragon slayer of sorts. He'd take out the Democrats best chance of winning the White House in 2008. I don't think that he realizes that he's never going to win in a Republican Presidential Primary. He's for abortion, for gay marriage (I think) and for gun-control. THat's 3 strikes against him for most GOP voters and that won't sell outside of the North East and California.

Florida, I think will be an uphill battle. Bill Nelson has probably been a mediocre SEantor but the GOP is running someone who incites a lot of passion on the liberal side. They can possibly win with her if everything goes rights, but I don't like the chances. I think a relatively unknown Republican with some experience may have a better chance against Bill Nelson.

So you're actually donating to campaigns? Now of all the campaigns, why TOm Gallagher and Katherine Harris?I don't know who I'm supporting in these primaries yet.

George Allen. Isn't he going to be a candidate for President in 2008? I haven't really thought a lot about politics lately and I don't know who I'd support in 2008 buuuut John McCain and Condoleezza RIce are probably early favorites along with maybe Sen. Allen
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[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-07 08:30 am (UTC)
Sure, why not?
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[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-03 01:52 am (UTC)
Jon Ensign's seat isn't a shaky one, he will cruise to re-election.
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[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-03 04:47 am (UTC)
Yeha. I think they've only been able to get Jack Carter to run against him. I only put Nevada on there b/c it is a battleground state. When I did that I wans't aware of that many of the challengers.
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