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Republican Chances in 2006 (Cross Posted In Different GOP Communities) - Bush in 2004 [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
Vote Bush 2004

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Republican Chances in 2006 (Cross Posted In Different GOP Communities) [Nov. 14th, 2005|12:47 am]
Vote Bush 2004

votebush2004

[nighthawkal]
Some people think that b/c the 2005 elections didn't turn out so well that the Republicans are in trouble in 2006 and that they will lose the US House and the Senate.

I don't think that the Republicans, if they lose in 2006, are going to lose that badly. At least not badly enough to lose the Senate. In the HOuse, at most there will probably only be 20 competitive races. The Dems need a net gain of 14 seats. They probably need to win about 15 in order to take the House.

In the US Senate, the Republicans will start off w/ 40 seats, while the Dems start off with only 27 seats. There will be 33 contested seats. If the Republicans win only 11 of those 33 seats, they will maintain a 51-49 majority in the US Senate.

Current Senate:
GOP- 55
DEM- 45

Senate Starts Out:
GOP- 40
DEM- 27


Safe Republican Seats Include: (9)
Jon Kyl, Arizona
Dick Lugar, Indiana
Olympia Snowe, Maine
Trent Lott, Mississippi
Lincoln Chafee, Rhode Island
Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Texas
Orrin Hatch, Utah
George Allen, Virginia
Craig Thomas, Wyoming

Safe Democrats:(9)
Dianne Feinstein, California
Joe Lieberman, Connecticut
Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
Ted Kennedy, Massachusetts
New Jersey (Jon Corzine's seat)
Jeff Bingamin, New Mexico
Kent Conrad, North Dakota
Herbert Kohl, Wisconsin

The Vermont seat held by Jumping Jim Jeffords will probably go to Bernie Sanders

Senate After Safe Seats:
GOP- 49
DEM- 36


Republicans in Potentially Close Races: (2)

Conrad Burns, Montana (Freshman Sen.)
John Ensign , Nevada (Freshman Sen in swing state)

Democrats in Potentially CLose Elections: (6)
Thomas Carper, Delaware (freshman Sen)
Hillary CLinton, New York
Debbie Stabenow, Michigan (swing state, won less than 50% in2000)
Ben Nelson, Nebraska (Democrat in heavily Republcian state. Won only 51% in 2000)
Maria Cantwell, Washington (the Libertarian had more votes than the margin of victory in 2000)
Robert KKK Byrd, West Virginia ( fought for the Confederacy in the Civil War)

GOP- 51
DEM- 42

Republicans in Extremely Close Races (4)

Jim Talent, Missouri (swing state)
Mike DeWine, Ohio (will be heavily constested seat in swing state)
Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania (heavily contested seat in swing state)
Bill Frist, Tennessee ( I think he's retiring to run for Pres.)

Democrats in Extremely Close Races (3)

Bill Nelson, Florida (swing state, will be heavily contested)
Maryland (open seat. Sarbanes is retiring and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) is running hard for that seat)
Minnesnowta (open seat. Sen. Dayton is retiring. POssible GOP Pickup)

I think that the worst case scenario is that Republicans still hold the US Senate 51-49. The best case scenarion is 60-40 GOP assuming they win the 7 extremely close seats and they take Ben Nelson's seat in Nebraska and they take away RObert Byrd's seat in West Virginia which is a good possibility.
linkReply

Comments:
[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-03 01:53 am (UTC)
LOL@ Robert Byrd - fought for Confederacy in the civil war.
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[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-03 04:34 am (UTC)
HAH. I hate him like poison. He's old enough to fight in the Civil War? RIght? lol
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[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-07 08:29 am (UTC)
Pretty much, if he was in the Senate when Eisenhower was President, that's pretty old, the man's a fossil.
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[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-11 03:57 am (UTC)
Part of me thinks that they should have term limits for national offices. When people are in power too long, they get arrogant with that power.
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[User Picture]From: tallymatt
2005-12-12 04:34 pm (UTC)
Yes but term limits on federal elected offices has been declared unconstitutional. No one has challenged that since. Overall I'm opposed to term limits. In Florida this creates the problem of always having a legislature full of rookies, these people have to do on the job training and often times don't have any shit clue what they're doing. Term Limits erase the experience factor and like I said this gives us a legislature that doesn't know what the hell it's doing. There is an amendment to extend house term limits to 12 years instead of 8, I favor this, it's a step in the right direction. I oppose term limits on Legislative offices.
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[User Picture]From: nighthawkal
2005-12-25 10:07 pm (UTC)
I'm all for term limits. If people are worried about experience, they should train the incoming freshmen so then they have people coming off the bench when the incumbents retire after 12 years in office.

Letting people in too long leads to a lot of corruption. Its everywhere, even in something small like a HOme Owners Association. Or look at Castro ion Cuba. He's been there for 45 years and he was never term-limited. In the early days of the USA, I've read that many of the Congressmen were one-termers b/c no one really wanted the job of Congressman back then b/c of all the travelling and everything. I guess that was kind of a de facto term limit and we did just fine and we're still here.
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